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Midterm Voter Turnout·closes in 14mo

Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 10900000?

YES means Above 10.9M

24h volume
25
9,030 lifetime
Open interest
2,312
−7.05 over 7d
Spread
1¢
993 × 62 at the touch
24h range
78¢ – 78¢
13 recent trades
Chance of YES
78%+1

A YES contract costs 78¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
22%

costs 23¢

YES bid / ask
77¢ / 78¢
NO bid / ask
22¢ / 23¢
24h low 78¢24h high 78¢
Recent buying44% YES · 56% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
70¢75¢80¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,11194¢
  • ask3,64593¢
  • ask1,10991¢
  • ask1,50290¢
  • ask46389¢
  • ask0.1983¢
  • ask20082¢
  • ask6278¢
spread1¢mid 78¢
  • bid99377¢
  • bid20076¢
  • bid7174¢
  • bid1,11173¢
  • bid1,00072¢
  • bid1,11169¢
  • bid1,00068¢
  • bid1,53567¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election is above 10900000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
May 6 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
10900000
ticker
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-10900000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 13 trades, 44% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago78¢25bought yes
1d ago77¢7.05bought no
5d ago78¢32bought yes
15d ago78¢79bought no
15d ago78¢0.46bought no
23d ago77¢0.16bought no
23d ago77¢8.35bought no
1mo ago77¢0.01bought no
2mo ago82¢0.13bought yes
2mo ago83¢0.32bought yes
2mo ago82¢0.01bought yes
2mo ago84¢0.16bought yes
2mo ago83¢18bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.