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Midterm Voter Turnout·closes in 14mo

Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 11500000?

YES means Above 11.5M

24h volume
0
5,978 lifetime
Open interest
1,650
+197 over 30d
Spread
7¢
211 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
70%

A YES contract costs 77¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
30%

costs 30¢

YES bid / ask
70¢ / 77¢
NO bid / ask
23¢ / 30¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
70¢80¢90¢volAug 23Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,39693¢
  • ask2,75392¢
  • ask1,11491¢
  • ask1,11190¢
  • ask2,22289¢
  • ask33088¢
  • ask5887¢
  • ask20077¢
spread7¢mid 74¢
  • bid21170¢
  • bid70068¢
  • bid1,00065¢
  • bid162¢
  • bid2,22261¢
  • bid1,11155¢
  • bid1,00054¢
  • bid1,00052¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election is above 11500000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
May 6 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
11500000
ticker
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-11500000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago70¢3.53bought no
7d ago78¢0.6bought yes
7d ago87¢47bought yes
7d ago78¢200bought yes
8d ago71¢200bought yes
8d ago70¢200bought no
19d ago72¢10bought no
19d ago72¢6bought no
19d ago71¢9.79bought no
19d ago71¢0.21bought no
1mo ago73¢1bought no
1mo ago72¢8.91bought no
1mo ago72¢3.1bought no
1mo ago72¢0.9bought no
2mo ago75¢0.61bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.