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Midterm Voter Turnout·closes in 14mo

Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12600000?

YES means Above 12.6M

24h volume
0
6,176 lifetime
Open interest
3,543
+71 over 30d
Spread
9¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
29%

A YES contract costs 47¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 62¢

YES bid / ask
38¢ / 47¢
NO bid / ask
53¢ / 62¢
Recent buying8% YES · 92% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢40¢50¢60¢volAug 23Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,82075¢
  • ask1,11173¢
  • ask60272¢
  • ask671¢
  • ask1,00061¢
  • ask1,11160¢
  • ask0.0655¢
  • ask20047¢
spread9¢mid 43¢
  • bid20038¢
  • bid6930¢
  • bid1,00029¢
  • bid3,92221¢
  • bid2,22220¢
  • bid2,22218¢
  • bid2,22214¢
  • bid84313¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election is above 12600000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
May 6 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
12600000
ticker
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-12600000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 8% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago35¢34bought no
7d ago29¢7.14bought no
14d ago46¢0.18bought yes
14d ago48¢0.41bought no
14d ago35¢66bought no
14d ago49¢200bought no
28d ago48¢200bought no
29d ago55¢6.31bought yes
1mo ago48¢0.1bought no
1mo ago55¢0.1bought yes
1mo ago48¢60bought no
1mo ago48¢0.18bought no
1mo ago52¢0.06bought yes
1mo ago55¢0.94bought yes
2mo ago47¢8.97bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.