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Midterm Voter Turnout·closes in 14mo

Will the total vote count for all participants in Minnesota Senate General Election be above 2600000?

YES means Above 2.60M

24h volume
0
745 lifetime
Open interest
571
+571 over 90d
Spread
27¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
45%

A YES contract costs 46¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
55%

costs 81¢

YES bid / ask
19¢ / 46¢
NO bid / ask
54¢ / 81¢
Recent buying88% YES · 12% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢30¢40¢50¢volJul 31Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10796¢
  • ask7495¢
  • ask4294¢
  • ask5388¢
  • ask1077¢
  • ask775¢
  • ask347¢
  • ask546¢
spread27¢mid 32¢
  • bid519¢
  • bid0.518¢
  • bid7011¢
  • bid10010¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total vote count for all participants in Minnesota Senate General Election is above 2600000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 17 · 7:58 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2600000
ticker
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MNSEN-2600000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 88% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago45¢21bought yes
3d ago44¢0.01bought yes
3d ago44¢0.57bought yes
13d ago38¢85bought no
19d ago42¢114bought yes
22d ago38¢0.8bought no
22d ago38¢1bought no
27d ago37¢5.17bought yes
1mo ago30¢3bought yes
1mo ago31¢15bought yes
1mo ago30¢111bought yes
1mo ago30¢1.8bought yes
2mo ago28¢85bought yes
2mo ago22¢200bought yes
2mo ago21¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.