Next Millennium Prize Problem·closes in 221mo

Will Hodge be solved next before 2045?

YES means Hodge Conjecture

24h volume
0
2,770 lifetime
Open interest
956
−68 over 30d
Spread
4¢
7 × 12 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
27%

A YES contract costs 34¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 34¢
NO bid / ask
66¢ / 70¢
Recent buying39% YES · 61% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

25¢50¢75¢volOct 6Nov 5

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10384¢
  • ask32881¢
  • ask1680¢
  • ask8874¢
  • ask27070¢
  • ask25169¢
  • ask20035¢
  • ask1234¢
spread4¢mid 32¢
  • bid730¢
  • bid20026¢
  • bid315¢
  • bid4012¢
  • bid5411¢
  • bid24610¢
  • bid4239¢
  • bid4544¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Hodge Conjecture is the first Millennium Prize Problem solved after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

A Millennium Prize Problem is considered Solved at the earliest time that any of the following occurs: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as officially formulated is published in a peer-reviewed journal. The Clay Mathematics Institute or another recognized authoritative academic body officially recognizes in writing that the problem has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies report that the problem has been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work. If multiple problems have the same Solution Time, each is treated as the next problem Solved and the market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied problems. A qualifying solution ceases to count if, before Expiration, it is formally retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, rescinded, or found to contain an identified and unaddressed error.

opened
Sep 12 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMILLENNIUMNEXT-45-HODGE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 53¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago27¢16bought no
1d ago27¢1.34bought no
8d ago34¢2.81bought yes
8d ago31¢80bought no
8d ago38¢63bought yes
8d ago78¢6bought no
8d ago78¢6bought no
8d ago78¢4bought no
8d ago78¢0.05bought no
8d ago78¢0.87bought yes
8d ago30¢80bought no
8d ago76¢25bought yes
8d ago25¢25bought no
8d ago77¢50bought yes
8d ago30¢50bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.