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Pro Baseball Debut·closes in 1mo

Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2026?

YES means Before Nov 1, 2026

24h volume
0
2,679 lifetime
Open interest
1,105
+0 over 24h
Spread
7¢
5 × 8 at the touch
24h range
–
47 recent trades
Chance of YES
34%

A YES contract costs 51¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
66%

costs 56¢

YES bid / ask
44¢ / 51¢
NO bid / ask
49¢ / 56¢
Recent buying40% YES · 60% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volSep 20, 7:03 AMSep 20, 5:25 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5299¢
  • ask10095¢
  • ask87194¢
  • ask20052¢
  • ask851¢
spread7¢mid 48¢
  • bid544¢
  • bid20043¢
  • bid9028¢
  • bid8576¢
  • bid1005¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Franklin Arias plays for any MLB team in a regular season or playoff game before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
May 9 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 1 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMLBDEBUT-FARIAS-26NOV01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 47 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago34¢200bought no
8d ago34¢50bought no
8d ago34¢30bought no
8d ago33¢20bought no
11d ago35¢5bought no
11d ago34¢14bought no
13d ago42¢2bought yes
20d ago39¢200bought no
20d ago43¢200bought no
20d ago44¢5bought no
23d ago40¢67bought no
24d ago41¢77bought yes
24d ago41¢5bought yes
24d ago43¢200bought no
24d ago28¢1.01bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.