Pro Baseball Debut·closes in 10d

Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Oct 1, 2026?

YES means Before Oct 1, 2026

24h volume
5
1,135 lifetime
Open interest
712
+635 over 30d
Spread
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
17¢ – 17¢
21 recent trades
Chance of YES
17%53

A YES contract costs 24¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
83%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 24¢
NO bid / ask
76¢ / 82¢
24h low 17¢24h high 17¢
Recent buying72% YES · 28% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10095¢
  • ask1585¢
  • ask3775¢
  • ask26163¢
  • ask2962¢
  • ask20025¢
  • ask524¢
spreadmid 21¢
  • bid518¢
  • bid2917¢
  • bid20016¢
  • bid100
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Franklin Arias plays for any MLB team in a regular season or playoff game before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 14 · 3:00 AM UTC
closes
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMLBDEBUT-FARIAS-26OCT01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 21 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago17¢5bought no
1d ago70¢5bought yes
1d ago70¢5bought yes
2d ago27¢5bought no
2d ago16¢200bought no
4d ago27¢5bought no
6d ago32¢21bought yes
7d ago29¢21bought no
7d ago32¢39bought yes
7d ago29¢39bought no
7d ago29¢39bought no
7d ago30¢5bought no
7d ago34¢44bought yes
19d ago31¢25bought yes
19d ago29¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.