Pro Baseball Debut·closes in 20mo

Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028?

YES means Before May 1, 2028

24h volume: 0; 701 lifetime
Open interest: 316; +0 over 24h
Spread: 7¢; 5 × 5 at the touch
24h range: –; 6 recent trades

Chance of YES

85%

A YES contract costs 92¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

15%

costs 15¢

YES bid / ask

85¢ / 92¢

NO bid / ask

8¢ / 15¢

Recent buying12% YES · 88% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask5099¢
ask10095¢
ask20093¢
ask592¢

spread7¢mid 89¢

bid585¢
bid20084¢
bid65818¢
bid1005¢
bid501¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Franklin Arias plays for any MLB team in a regular season or playoff game before May 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources

opened: May 9 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: May 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by: Nov 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXMLBDEBUT-FARIAS-28MAY01

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 12% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
3d ago	85¢	5	bought no
3d ago	91¢	5	bought yes
7d ago	84¢	8	bought no
21d ago	84¢	3	bought no
21d ago	87¢	16	bought no
21d ago	88¢	5	bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.