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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Margot Robbie be cast in The next feature-length film in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to be released by Walt Disney Studios after Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)?

YES means Margot Robbie

24h volume
0
514 lifetime
Open interest
172
−113 over 30d
Spread
7¢
5 × 100 at the touch
24h range
15¢ – 17¢
13 recent trades
Chance of YES
17%

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
83%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 89¢
24h low 15¢24h high 17¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask16960¢
  • ask5455¢
  • ask12654¢
  • ask10018¢
spread7¢mid 15¢
  • bid511¢
  • bid12410¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Margot Robbie is cast in The next feature-length film in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to be released by Walt Disney Studios after Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 19 · 6:24 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-PIR29-MROB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 13 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
23d ago17¢5bought yes
29d ago16¢27bought yes
29d ago15¢25bought no
29d ago15¢43bought no
29d ago15¢50bought no
29d ago16¢27bought yes
29d ago16¢25bought yes
29d ago16¢27bought yes
1mo ago16¢52bought yes
1mo ago16¢25bought yes
1mo ago19¢25bought yes
1mo ago19¢65bought yes
1mo ago16¢118bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.