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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Daniel Radcliffe be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Daniel Radcliffe

24h volume
0
719 lifetime
Open interest
199
+195 over 90d
Spread
11¢
5 × 84 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 94¢
Recent buying7% YES · 93% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volJul 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3285¢
  • ask7567¢
  • ask15666¢
  • ask19354¢
  • ask148¢
  • ask0.7239¢
  • ask5.5938¢
  • ask8417¢
spread11¢mid 12¢
  • bid56¢
  • bid1004¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Daniel Radcliffe is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 7% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago13¢0.72bought yes
1mo ago17¢11bought yes
1mo ago16¢1bought yes
2mo ago16¢1.04bought yes
2mo ago17¢4.55bought yes
2mo ago5¢1.04bought no
2mo ago14¢100bought no
2mo ago14¢22bought no
2mo ago14¢25bought no
2mo ago14¢3bought no
2mo ago14¢3bought no
2mo ago14¢15bought no
2mo ago14¢5bought no
2mo ago14¢45bought no
2mo ago14¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.