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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Denzel Washington be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Denzel Washington

24h volume
0
789 lifetime
Open interest
193
+189 over 90d
Spread
8¢
5 × 4.31 at the touch
24h range
–
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 12¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 12¢
NO bid / ask
88¢ / 96¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volJul 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00099¢
  • ask22373¢
  • ask20672¢
  • ask10013¢
  • ask4.3112¢
spread8¢mid 8¢
  • bid54¢
  • bid253¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Denzel Washington is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-DEN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 23 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago14¢12bought no
2mo ago14¢4.31bought no
2mo ago22¢4.31bought yes
2mo ago18¢5bought yes
2mo ago17¢2bought yes
2mo ago30¢6.22bought yes
2mo ago19¢7bought yes
2mo ago29¢1bought yes
2mo ago9¢59bought no
2mo ago11¢5bought no
2mo ago10¢1bought no
2mo ago21¢35bought yes
2mo ago23¢29bought yes
2mo ago20¢1.13bought yes
2mo ago10¢1.13bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.