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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Hugh Jackman be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Hugh Jackman

24h volume
0
5,824 lifetime
Open interest
1,788
−48 over 7d
Spread
46¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
14¢ – 36¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
36%

A YES contract costs 62¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
64%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 62¢
NO bid / ask
38¢ / 84¢
24h low 14¢24h high 36¢
Recent buying42% YES · 58% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4.5286¢
  • ask68681¢
  • ask40480¢
  • ask6475¢
  • ask5074¢
  • ask37568¢
  • ask5063¢
  • ask562¢
spread46¢mid 39¢
  • bid516¢
  • bid515¢
  • bid3.2913¢
  • bid0.1312¢
  • bid27¢
  • bid946¢
  • bid3555¢
  • bid4793¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Hugh Jackman is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-HUG
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 42% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago35¢7.24bought yes
2d ago36¢2.52bought yes
2d ago33¢4.05bought yes
3d ago22¢4bought no
3d ago23¢4bought no
3d ago14¢3.24bought no
3d ago22¢24bought no
3d ago27¢12bought no
4d ago30¢3.86bought no
4d ago33¢0.95bought yes
6d ago33¢8.81bought yes
6d ago34¢11bought yes
6d ago35¢27bought yes
6d ago34¢5bought yes
6d ago34¢2.81bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.