who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Ian McKellen be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Ian McKellen

24h volume
0
353 lifetime
Open interest
71
+0 over 30d
Spread
45¢
2 × 3.81 at the touch
24h range
10 recent trades
Chance of YES
27%

A YES contract costs 52¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
/ 52¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 93¢
Recent buying84% YES · 16% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00099¢
  • ask5598¢
  • ask10296¢
  • ask3592¢
  • ask20084¢
  • ask7283¢
  • ask582¢
  • ask3.8152¢
spread45¢mid 30¢
  • bid2
  • bid5
  • bid2.94
  • bid200
  • bid1,000
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ian McKellen is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-IAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 10 trades, 84% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2mo ago27¢0.91bought yes
2mo ago24¢2.9bought yes
2mo ago23¢26bought yes
2mo ago24¢19bought yes
2mo ago22¢2bought yes
2mo ago23¢14bought yes
2mo ago23¢14bought no
2mo ago24¢3bought yes
2mo ago24¢1.01bought yes
2mo ago24¢2.94bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.