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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Jacob Elordi be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Jacob Elordi

24h volume
0
978 lifetime
Open interest
256
+0 over 24h
Spread
45¢
3.55 × 6 at the touch
24h range
–
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%

A YES contract costs 65¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 80¢

YES bid / ask
20¢ / 65¢
NO bid / ask
35¢ / 80¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢volSep 20, 11:33 PMSep 20, 11:34 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,04199¢
  • ask5498¢
  • ask12991¢
  • ask9090¢
  • ask8686¢
  • ask665¢
spread45¢mid 43¢
  • bid3.5520¢
  • bid519¢
  • bid2.4418¢
  • bid2517¢
  • bid0.127¢
  • bid753¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Jacob Elordi is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JAC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 26 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago18¢0.12bought no
19d ago22¢86bought yes
1mo ago21¢20bought yes
1mo ago21¢2.56bought yes
1mo ago15¢12bought no
1mo ago21¢5bought no
1mo ago20¢20bought no
1mo ago19¢184bought no
2mo ago20¢66bought no
2mo ago21¢1bought no
2mo ago96¢1.55bought yes
2mo ago38¢0.52bought yes
2mo ago37¢2bought yes
2mo ago25¢200bought yes
2mo ago24¢1.1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.