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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Joe Keery be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Joe Keery

24h volume
0
4,406 lifetime
Open interest
486
+32 over 7d
Spread
53¢
5 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 65¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 65¢
NO bid / ask
35¢ / 88¢
Recent buying32% YES · 68% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00099¢
  • ask46696¢
  • ask9790¢
  • ask4889¢
  • ask10065¢
spread53¢mid 39¢
  • bid512¢
  • bid10011¢
  • bid1009¢
  • bid2033¢
  • bid5152¢
  • bid1,0531¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Joe Keery is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JOE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 32% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago15¢71bought yes
4d ago13¢100bought yes
4d ago69¢3.27bought yes
4d ago68¢5.59bought yes
18d ago16¢12bought yes
22d ago15¢189bought yes
22d ago16¢0.23bought yes
26d ago12¢29bought no
1mo ago12¢1bought no
1mo ago14¢2bought yes
1mo ago8¢1bought no
1mo ago15¢1bought yes
2mo ago17¢32bought no
2mo ago17¢200bought no
2mo ago24¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.