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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Margaret Qualley be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Margaret Qualley

24h volume
0
931 lifetime
Open interest
446
+0 over 7d
Spread
56¢
5 × 38 at the touch
24h range
–
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 63¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 63¢
NO bid / ask
37¢ / 93¢
Recent buying24% YES · 76% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00199¢
  • ask4698¢
  • ask4796¢
  • ask9594¢
  • ask3493¢
  • ask8492¢
  • ask1680¢
  • ask3863¢
spread56¢mid 35¢
  • bid57¢
  • bid56¢
  • bid774¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Margaret Qualley is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-MAR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 24% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
22d ago15¢3.14bought yes
1mo ago58¢4.13bought yes
1mo ago63¢8.91bought yes
1mo ago57¢3bought yes
1mo ago52¢0.87bought yes
2mo ago15¢100bought no
2mo ago16¢200bought no
2mo ago17¢5bought no
2mo ago5¢0.01bought no
2mo ago30¢2bought yes
2mo ago31¢1.13bought yes
2mo ago19¢7.6bought yes
2mo ago21¢13bought yes
2mo ago20¢26bought yes
2mo ago27¢3bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.