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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Michael Fassbender be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Michael Fassbender

24h volume
0
723 lifetime
Open interest
229
+0 over 24h
Spread
19¢
107 × 62 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
24%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
76%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 97¢
Recent buying21% YES · 79% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volSep 20, 8:01 AMSep 20, 11:58 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask24158¢
  • ask9756¢
  • ask4855¢
  • ask130¢
  • ask10026¢
  • ask1.2325¢
  • ask1323¢
  • ask6222¢
spread19¢mid 12¢
  • bid1073¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1,0141¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Michael Fassbender is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-MIC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 21% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
24d ago24¢1.23bought yes
1mo ago25¢12bought yes
1mo ago20¢4.31bought no
1mo ago20¢12bought no
1mo ago22¢4.31bought yes
2mo ago20¢1.23bought no
2mo ago20¢25bought no
2mo ago10¢1bought yes
2mo ago19¢91bought no
2mo ago20¢10bought yes
2mo ago20¢7bought yes
2mo ago19¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.