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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Paul Mescal be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Paul Mescal

24h volume
0
456 lifetime
Open interest
204
+0 over 24h
Spread
9¢
5 × 89 at the touch
24h range
–
6 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 94¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 8:01 AMSep 20, 11:34 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask23087¢
  • ask9165¢
  • ask33658¢
  • ask32055¢
  • ask1653¢
  • ask4250¢
  • ask10016¢
  • ask8915¢
spread9¢mid 11¢
  • bid56¢
  • bid305¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Paul Mescal is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-PAU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2mo ago16¢14bought no
2mo ago16¢25bought no
2mo ago16¢50bought no
2mo ago16¢27bought no
2mo ago16¢9bought no
2mo ago16¢91bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.