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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Tye Sheridan be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Tye Sheridan

24h volume
0
957 lifetime
Open interest
185
+0 over 24h
Spread
15¢
5 × 96 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 96¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢volSep 20, 8:01 AMSep 20, 11:34 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00099¢
  • ask19388¢
  • ask17487¢
  • ask9669¢
  • ask25462¢
  • ask20458¢
  • ask5253¢
  • ask9619¢
spread15¢mid 11¢
  • bid54¢
  • bid153¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tye Sheridan is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-TYE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago6¢5.25bought no
24d ago18¢1.13bought yes
1mo ago10¢22bought no
2mo ago13¢1.13bought no
2mo ago19¢3.23bought yes
2mo ago18¢22bought yes
2mo ago18¢5.25bought yes
2mo ago15¢2bought no
2mo ago19¢4.98bought yes
2mo ago19¢1bought yes
2mo ago18¢8.01bought no
2mo ago18¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.