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Mississippi cotton production·closes in 17mo

Will Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 be above 1,100,000 bales?

YES means Above 1,100,000 bales

24h volume
0
11.1k lifetime
Open interest
712
+712 over 90d
Spread
10¢
525 × 106 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 90¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volAug 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1398¢
  • ask4,58886¢
  • ask24685¢
  • ask1284¢
  • ask1,00024¢
  • ask1,00023¢
  • ask35022¢
  • ask10620¢
spread10¢mid 15¢
  • bid52510¢
  • bid1,5206¢
  • bid443¢
  • bid1,2862¢
  • bid1,0651¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If USDA NASS reports that Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 is above 1,100,000 bales, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is USDA NASS’s reported Cotton, Upland - Production for Mississippi for the 2027 crop year, measured in 480-pound bales. Use Cotton → Cotton, Upland → Production → 480 LB Bales.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 20 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 31, 2028 · 2:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1100000
ticker
KXMSCOTTON-28JAN31-T1100000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago21¢200bought no
1d ago21¢200bought no
3d ago21¢208bought no
3d ago21¢218bought no
3d ago21¢200bought no
3d ago21¢50bought no
8d ago20¢1bought no
9d ago21¢200bought no
9d ago24¢25bought no
9d ago24¢200bought no
9d ago24¢100bought no
9d ago19¢1,111bought no
11d ago25¢0.11bought yes
14d ago25¢25bought no
14d ago25¢50bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.