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Mississippi cotton production·closes in 17mo

Will Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 be above 800,000 bales?

YES means Above 800,000 bales

24h volume
800
1,297 lifetime
Open interest
864
+31 over 24h
Spread
11¢
5 × 150 at the touch
24h range
44¢ – 48¢
39 recent trades
Chance of YES
45%−30

A YES contract costs 47¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
55%

costs 64¢

YES bid / ask
36¢ / 47¢
NO bid / ask
53¢ / 64¢
24h low 44¢24h high 48¢
Recent buying32% YES · 68% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 20, 6:45 AMSep 21, 4:21 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,05099¢
  • ask20098¢
  • ask5497¢
  • ask1,40979¢
  • ask1,00068¢
  • ask667¢
  • ask31448¢
  • ask15047¢
spread11¢mid 42¢
  • bid536¢
  • bid1035¢
  • bid7234¢
  • bid1,00033¢
  • bid5031¢
  • bid30028¢
  • bid5027¢
  • bid63325¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If USDA NASS reports that Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 is above 800,000 bales, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is USDA NASS’s reported Cotton, Upland - Production for Mississippi for the 2027 crop year, measured in 480-pound bales. Use Cotton → Cotton, Upland → Production → 480 LB Bales.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 18 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 31, 2028 · 2:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
800000
ticker
KXMSCOTTON-28JAN31-T800000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 39 trades, 32% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
20h ago45¢4bought yes
20h ago44¢5bought yes
20h ago46¢6bought yes
20h ago46¢14bought yes
20h ago46¢14bought yes
20h ago46¢14bought yes
20h ago44¢7bought yes
22h ago45¢10bought yes
22h ago45¢9bought yes
22h ago45¢1bought yes
22h ago46¢1bought yes
22h ago45¢2bought yes
22h ago47¢1bought yes
22h ago48¢6bought yes
22h ago48¢6bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.