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New federal city·closes in 28mo

Will Trump aprpove a new city on federal land?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
0
5,699 lifetime
Open interest
2,144
−13 over 30d
Spread
23¢
6 × 1 at the touch
24h range
39¢ – 40¢
Chance of YES
40%

A YES contract costs 39¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
60%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 39¢
NO bid / ask
61¢ / 84¢
24h low 39¢24h high 40¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask40289¢
  • ask1,39086¢
  • ask1,06783¢
  • ask26876¢
  • ask3472¢
  • ask5471¢
  • ask20040¢
  • ask139¢
spread23¢mid 28¢
  • bid616¢
  • bid513¢
  • bid110¢
  • bid285¢
  • bid2425¢
  • bid3,5564¢
  • bid603¢
  • bid11.9k3¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a new city is created or chartered on federal land after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 20, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEWCITY-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.