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SCOTUS confirmations·closes in 28mo

Will the next President confirm 1 Supreme Court justices?

YES means 1

24h volume
0
40.9k lifetime
Open interest
10.3k
Spread
3¢
240 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 83¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4660¢
  • ask11059¢
  • ask1531¢
  • ask20027¢
  • ask1026¢
  • ask523¢
  • ask521¢
  • ask520¢
spread3¢mid 19¢
  • bid24017¢
  • bid47¢
  • bid587¢
  • bid705¢
  • bid1005¢
  • bid1,3503¢
  • bid2,2641¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If 1 Supreme Court Justices are confirmed during the 2025-2029 presidential term, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 4, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1
cap
1
ticker
KXNEWSCOTUSCONF-29JAN20-1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 77¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago18¢126bought no
7d ago24¢500bought no
7d ago24¢70bought no
7d ago24¢3bought no
7d ago24¢4.98bought no
8d ago25¢10bought no
8d ago27¢5bought no
8d ago26¢5bought no
8d ago24¢21bought no
9d ago31¢1.67bought yes
10d ago31¢4bought yes
10d ago32¢21bought yes
10d ago7¢32bought no
10d ago7¢10bought no
11d ago30¢500bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.