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Next Defense Sec·closes in 28mo

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

YES means No other person

24h volume
0
16.6k lifetime
Open interest
10.1k
Spread
7¢
250 × 285 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
58%

A YES contract costs 57¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
42%

costs 50¢

YES bid / ask
50¢ / 57¢
NO bid / ask
43¢ / 50¢
Recent buying45% YES · 55% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is no other person, then the market resolves to Yes.

Acting and Interim positions don't count.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 1, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTDEF-29-NONE
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 45% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago58¢1.67bought yes
3d ago56¢17bought no
3d ago58¢42bought yes
3d ago55¢24bought no
3d ago52¢5.02bought no
4d ago52¢0.86bought no
4d ago53¢5bought no
4d ago53¢5.02bought no
4d ago58¢5.88bought yes
4d ago58¢5bought yes
4d ago58¢5.02bought yes
4d ago59¢6.59bought yes
4d ago52¢8.23bought no
5d ago59¢8.23bought yes
6d ago52¢1.64bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.