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Next Defense Sec·closes in 28mo

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

YES means No other person

24h volume
17
16.7k lifetime
Open interest
10.1k
+17 over 24h
Spread
5¢
250 × 15 at the touch
24h range
57¢ – 57¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
57%−1

A YES contract costs 56¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
43%

costs 49¢

YES bid / ask
51¢ / 56¢
NO bid / ask
44¢ / 49¢
24h low 57¢24h high 57¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
45¢50¢55¢60¢volSep 20, 4:17 AMSep 21, 3:12 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,38681¢
  • ask1080¢
  • ask55375¢
  • ask1,16874¢
  • ask2973¢
  • ask27058¢
  • ask3557¢
  • ask1556¢
spread5¢mid 54¢
  • bid25051¢
  • bid547¢
  • bid2927¢
  • bid10026¢
  • bid7122¢
  • bid57921¢
  • bid46819¢
  • bid20016¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is no other person, then the market resolves to Yes.

Acting and Interim positions don't count.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 1, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTDEF-29-NONE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 105¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago57¢17bought yes
3d ago58¢1.67bought yes
3d ago56¢17bought no
3d ago58¢42bought yes
3d ago55¢24bought no
3d ago52¢5.02bought no
4d ago52¢0.86bought no
4d ago53¢5bought no
4d ago53¢5.02bought no
4d ago58¢5.88bought yes
4d ago58¢5bought yes
4d ago58¢5.02bought yes
4d ago59¢6.59bought yes
4d ago52¢8.23bought no
5d ago59¢8.23bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.