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Next Defense Sec·closes in 28mo

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

YES means Ron DeSantis

24h volume
41
5,532 lifetime
Open interest
2,394
Spread
0¢
14 × 350 at the touch
24h range
–
27 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%−5

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 9¢
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 91¢
Recent buying86% YES · 14% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask66852¢
  • ask53546¢
  • ask4745¢
  • ask3442¢
  • ask4141¢
  • ask2227¢
  • ask1714¢
  • ask3509¢
spread0¢mid 9¢
  • bid149¢
  • bid88¢
  • bid1008¢
  • bid1753¢
  • bid2502¢
  • bid391¢
  • bid1,8390¢
  • bid150¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Ron DeSantis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Acting and Interim positions don't count.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 1, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTDEF-29-RDES
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 105¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 27 trades, 86% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago9¢18bought no
4h ago9¢2.84bought no
4h ago9¢21bought yes
4d ago14¢20bought yes
5d ago9¢6.18bought no
8d ago14¢6.73bought yes
8d ago14¢28bought yes
8d ago13¢1.53bought yes
8d ago13¢5bought yes
12d ago9¢1.53bought no
13d ago14¢34bought yes
14d ago14¢6.18bought yes
15d ago24¢87bought yes
15d ago22¢12bought yes
15d ago10¢250bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.