Next Defense Sec·closes in 28mo

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

YES means Tom Cotton

24h volume: 0; 1,537 lifetime
Open interest: 1,475
Spread: 2¢; 183 × 1,546 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

97%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask

1¢ / 3¢

NO bid / ask

97¢ / 99¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Tom Cotton, then the market resolves to Yes.

Acting and Interim positions don't count.

Settlement sources

opened: Apr 1, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXNEXTDEF-29-TCOT

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 106¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.