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Next Prime Minister of Israel·closes in 221mo

Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES means Amir Ohana

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
Spread
35¢
0 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 100¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask195¢
  • ask4,41191¢
  • ask5190¢
  • ask2040¢
  • ask2,05039¢
  • ask937¢
  • ask6336¢
  • ask135¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Amir Ohana, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Nov 2 · 5:55 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-AOHA
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 88¢).

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.