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Next Prime Minister of Israel·closes in 221mo

Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES means Benny Gantz

24h volume
0
4,563 lifetime
Open interest
1,650
Spread
0¢
167 × 966 at the touch
24h range
–
27 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying55% YES · 45% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,75339¢
  • ask87838¢
  • ask1005¢
  • ask14¢
  • ask162¢
  • ask121¢
  • ask1,0951¢
  • ask9661¢
spread0¢mid 1¢
  • bid1671¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Benny Gantz, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-BGAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 88¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 27 trades, 55% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago1¢2bought no
3d ago1¢2bought yes
3d ago1¢12bought no
3d ago1¢5bought yes
3d ago1¢2bought yes
3d ago1¢5bought yes
3d ago1¢2bought no
3d ago1¢2bought yes
6d ago1¢1bought yes
9d ago1¢29bought no
11d ago1¢20bought no
20d ago1¢3bought no
23d ago1¢3bought yes
23d ago1¢1bought yes
29d ago1¢3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.