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Next Prime Minister of Israel·closes in 223mo

Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES means Gadi Eisenkot

24h volume
38
12.5k lifetime
Open interest
7,020
+38 over 24h
Spread
2¢
10 × 16 at the touch
24h range
65¢ – 65¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
65%+5

A YES contract costs 63¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
35%

costs 39¢

YES bid / ask
61¢ / 63¢
NO bid / ask
37¢ / 39¢
24h low 65¢24h high 65¢
Recent buying41% YES · 59% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢60¢70¢volSep 20, 7:04 AMSep 21, 4:40 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask56297¢
  • ask88892¢
  • ask1,31792¢
  • ask50489¢
  • ask4888¢
  • ask20070¢
  • ask32567¢
  • ask1663¢
spread2¢mid 62¢
  • bid1061¢
  • bid20060¢
  • bid2151¢
  • bid8143¢
  • bid7942¢
  • bid4841¢
  • bid36840¢
  • bid34639¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Gadi Eisenkot, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-GEIS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 41% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14h ago65¢38bought yes
3d ago60¢5bought no
8d ago58¢1.64bought no
11d ago59¢142bought no
12d ago64¢55bought yes
12d ago64¢98bought yes
12d ago57¢126bought no
13d ago60¢15bought no
14d ago64¢2.13bought yes
14d ago64¢8bought yes
14d ago64¢5bought yes
14d ago65¢1.5bought yes
14d ago62¢0.46bought no
15d ago62¢1bought no
22d ago66¢1.46bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.