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Next Prime Minister of Israel·closes in 223mo

Will Itamar Ben-Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES means Itamar Ben-Gvir

24h volume
10
12.2k lifetime
Open interest
6,228
+0 over 24h
Spread
4¢
299 × 2 at the touch
24h range
9¢ – 9¢
33 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%−0

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 98¢
24h low 9¢24h high 9¢
Recent buying95% YES · 5% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 20, 7:58 PMSep 20, 10:20 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,44091¢
  • ask5291¢
  • ask3691¢
  • ask214¢
  • ask20011¢
  • ask399¢
  • ask2006¢
  • ask26¢
spread4¢mid 4¢
  • bid2992¢
  • bid3501¢
  • bid1,0001¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Itamar Ben-Gvir, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-IBEN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 33 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago9¢10bought yes
10d ago9¢0.51bought yes
12d ago5¢10bought yes
12d ago6¢321bought yes
12d ago5¢100bought yes
12d ago5¢100bought yes
17d ago3¢7.08bought no
18d ago4¢36bought yes
18d ago3¢999bought yes
18d ago4¢200bought yes
18d ago4¢34bought yes
18d ago6¢490bought yes
24d ago2¢1.13bought no
28d ago2¢2.04bought no
1mo ago3¢1.03bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.