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Next Prime Minister of Israel·closes in 223mo

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES means Naftali Bennett

24h volume
93
38.6k lifetime
Open interest
8,667
+3 over 24h
Spread
3¢
22 × 7 at the touch
24h range
6¢ – 10¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%−0

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 93¢
24h low 6¢24h high 10¢
Recent buying35% YES · 65% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 20, 1:30 PMSep 21, 5:04 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask26058¢
  • ask38352¢
  • ask9351¢
  • ask5942¢
  • ask20014¢
  • ask313¢
  • ask110¢
  • ask710¢
spread3¢mid 8¢
  • bid227¢
  • bid1456¢
  • bid656¢
  • bid2006¢
  • bid1395¢
  • bid1084¢
  • bid1114¢
  • bid5503¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Naftali Bennett, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 35% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago10¢1bought yes
4h ago10¢2bought yes
7h ago6¢3bought no
7h ago6¢87bought no
4d ago10¢2.47bought yes
5d ago10¢16bought yes
8d ago10¢31bought yes
10d ago10¢42bought yes
10d ago10¢100bought yes
10d ago10¢6bought yes
12d ago10¢4bought yes
12d ago6¢35bought no
19d ago14¢20bought yes
21d ago14¢1bought yes
22d ago6¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.