Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES means Yair Lapid
- 24h volume
- 0
- 5,723 lifetime
- Open interest
- 1,962
- +96 over 90d
- Spread
- 5¢
- 200 × 703 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 4 recent trades
A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 99¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask1496¢
- ask3296¢
- ask4496¢
- ask30062¢
- ask1,26257¢
- ask5115¢
- ask447¢
- ask7036¢
- bid2001¢
- bid4730¢
- bid1,0000¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Yair Lapid, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.
- opened
- Oct 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-YLAP
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 4 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d ago | 2¢ | 8 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 2¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 3¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 5¢ | 449 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.