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Next Senate Judiciary Chair·closes in 16mo

Will Ted Cruz be the next chair of the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Ted Cruz

24h volume
0
835 lifetime
Open interest
463
+463 over 90d
Spread
8¢
250 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
22 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 89¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volJul 17Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask1698¢
  • ask1,14382¢
  • ask24781¢
  • ask35020¢
  • ask519¢
spread8¢mid 15¢
  • bid25011¢
  • bid403¢
  • bid4422¢
  • bid681¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ted Cruz formally holds the position of chair of the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 13 · 8:15 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTJUDICIARYCHAIR-28JAN01-TCRU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 87¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 22 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago2¢6bought no
2mo ago15¢2bought no
2mo ago14¢80bought no
2mo ago16¢2bought no
2mo ago16¢25bought no
2mo ago16¢109bought no
2mo ago16¢4bought no
2mo ago16¢25bought no
2mo ago16¢5bought no
2mo ago16¢20bought no
2mo ago20¢35bought no
2mo ago21¢20bought no
2mo ago20¢25bought no
2mo ago22¢20bought no
2mo ago23¢50bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.