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Next Labor Sec·closes in 28mo

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?

YES means Keith Sonderling

24h volume
0
50.3k lifetime
Open interest
11.6k
Spread
34¢
5 × 163 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
97%

A YES contract costs 97¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
3%

costs 37¢

YES bid / ask
63¢ / 97¢
NO bid / ask
3¢ / 37¢
Recent buying28% YES · 72% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15.0k99¢
  • ask55098¢
  • ask16397¢
spread34¢mid 80¢
  • bid563¢
  • bid10062¢
  • bid5060¢
  • bid2457¢
  • bid47211¢
  • bid67510¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the first new person to be Secretary of Labor is Keith Sonderling before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed via a “recess appointment” are included, even if that recess appointment is later struck down as illegal.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 20 · 9:34 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTLABORSEC-29-KSON
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 119¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 28% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago97¢5bought yes
4d ago92¢6bought no
4d ago95¢52bought yes
6d ago92¢8.97bought no
6d ago92¢8bought no
7d ago92¢500bought no
17d ago84¢5.53bought no
18d ago87¢273bought no
18d ago88¢100bought no
20d ago88¢6.8bought no
24d ago92¢482bought no
1mo ago92¢243bought no
1mo ago92¢157bought no
1mo ago89¢47bought no
1mo ago92¢500bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.