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Next NATO Secretary-General·closes in 880mo

Will Alexander Stubb be the next Secretary General of NATO?

YES means Alexander Stubb

24h volume
0
988 lifetime
Open interest
253
+0 over 7d
Spread
3¢
200 × 165 at the touch
24h range
–
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 85¢
Recent buying61% YES · 39% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5385¢
  • ask16468¢
  • ask10067¢
  • ask2960¢
  • ask55257¢
  • ask37948¢
  • ask20023¢
  • ask16518¢
spread3¢mid 17¢
  • bid20015¢
  • bid524¢
  • bid1743¢
  • bid1,5352¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexander Stubb formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, "formally holds Secretary General of NATO" means that an individual, company, or group has assumed Secretary General of NATO in an official capacity—whether by appointment, election, succession, confirmation, designation, or acting/interim assignment—and has performed or is recognized to perform the duties or responsibilities of that role for any length of time after Issuance.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 29 · 7:47 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-ASTU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 119¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 61% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago12¢5.75bought no
8d ago12¢10bought no
11d ago12¢1.61bought no
11d ago12¢2.08bought no
11d ago17¢2.94bought yes
11d ago2¢25bought no
12d ago18¢13bought yes
12d ago14¢13bought no
12d ago16¢5bought no
16d ago18¢18bought yes
17d ago17¢1bought yes
19d ago3¢1bought no
19d ago3¢2bought no
19d ago4¢1bought no
19d ago3¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.