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Next NATO Secretary-General·closes in 880mo

Will Ben Wallace be the next Secretary General of NATO?

YES means Ben Wallace

24h volume
0
1,127 lifetime
Open interest
90
+0 over 24h
Spread
29¢
19 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
17%

A YES contract costs 46¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
83%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 46¢
NO bid / ask
54¢ / 83¢
Recent buying47% YES · 53% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 20, 4:18 AMSep 21, 2:21 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ben Wallace formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, "formally holds Secretary General of NATO" means that an individual, company, or group has assumed Secretary General of NATO in an official capacity—whether by appointment, election, succession, confirmation, designation, or acting/interim assignment—and has performed or is recognized to perform the duties or responsibilities of that role for any length of time after Issuance.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 29 · 7:47 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-BWAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 119¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 47% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago17¢0.12bought no
6d ago18¢0.63bought no
6d ago18¢5bought no
8d ago18¢10bought no
8d ago18¢12bought no
11d ago31¢5bought yes
11d ago22¢5bought no
11d ago31¢1.61bought yes
11d ago22¢2.08bought no
11d ago26¢5bought no
11d ago26¢5bought yes
11d ago22¢25bought no
12d ago23¢5bought no
13d ago18¢35bought no
19d ago8¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.