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Next NATO Secretary-General·closes in 880mo

Will Klaus Iohannis be the next Secretary General of NATO?

YES means Klaus Iohannis

24h volume
0
364 lifetime
Open interest
90
+14 over 30d
Spread
6¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 95¢
Recent buying45% YES · 55% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20085¢
  • ask12060¢
  • ask26655¢
  • ask19554¢
  • ask453¢
  • ask20013¢
  • ask5.4612¢
  • ask511¢
spread6¢mid 8¢
  • bid2005¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Klaus Iohannis formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, "formally holds Secretary General of NATO" means that an individual, company, or group has assumed Secretary General of NATO in an official capacity—whether by appointment, election, succession, confirmation, designation, or acting/interim assignment—and has performed or is recognized to perform the duties or responsibilities of that role for any length of time after Issuance.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 29 · 7:47 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KIOH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 119¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 45% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago6¢1.06bought no
6d ago4¢4.69bought no
8d ago7¢6.31bought no
8d ago6¢3.94bought no
11d ago11¢7bought yes
11d ago7¢7bought no
11d ago7¢1.61bought no
11d ago7¢2.08bought no
11d ago11¢4.54bought yes
11d ago7¢25bought no
12d ago7¢5bought no
19d ago29¢1bought no
19d ago30¢2bought no
19d ago30¢1bought no
19d ago30¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.