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Next NATO Secretary-General·closes in 880mo

Will Keir Starmer be the next Secretary General of NATO?

YES means Keir Starmer

24h volume
0
790 lifetime
Open interest
542
+530 over 90d
Spread
8¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%

A YES contract costs 24¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 24¢
NO bid / ask
76¢ / 84¢
Recent buying68% YES · 32% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volJun 30Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask4598¢
  • ask63688¢
  • ask16174¢
  • ask88073¢
  • ask20072¢
  • ask30862¢
  • ask20024¢
spread8¢mid 20¢
  • bid20016¢
  • bid2882¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Keir Starmer formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, "formally holds Secretary General of NATO" means that an individual, company, or group has assumed Secretary General of NATO in an official capacity—whether by appointment, election, succession, confirmation, designation, or acting/interim assignment—and has performed or is recognized to perform the duties or responsibilities of that role for any length of time after Issuance.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 29 · 7:47 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KSTA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 119¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 68% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago16¢1bought no
5d ago19¢1bought no
6d ago16¢5.75bought no
8d ago16¢6.06bought no
8d ago19¢4.19bought no
8d ago20¢10bought no
8d ago19¢1.81bought no
11d ago20¢1.61bought no
11d ago23¢1.17bought no
11d ago20¢0.91bought no
11d ago23¢1bought yes
11d ago20¢25bought no
12d ago20¢5bought no
13d ago24¢6bought yes
13d ago23¢6bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.