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Who will be the world's second trillionaire?·closes in 76mo

Will Bernard Arnault & family be the world's second trillionaire?

YES means Bernard Arnault & family

24h volume
0
1,295 lifetime
Open interest
432
−1 over 7d
Spread
6¢
71 × 23 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 98¢
Recent buying54% YES · 46% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask40040¢
  • ask5039¢
  • ask1538¢
  • ask40020¢
  • ask10419¢
  • ask115¢
  • ask10011¢
  • ask238¢
spread6¢mid 5¢
  • bid712¢
  • bid2,9931¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Forbes reports that Bernard Arnault & family has become the second person in the world to reach a net worth of at least $1 trillion USD before Jan 1, 2033 then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 15 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2033 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2033 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-BA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 77¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 54% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago2¢1bought no
1mo ago4¢83bought yes
1mo ago4¢80bought yes
1mo ago4¢1bought yes
1mo ago2¢4bought yes
2mo ago1¢1bought no
2mo ago1¢6.4bought no
2mo ago7¢4bought no
2mo ago7¢8bought no
2mo ago7¢5bought no
2mo ago7¢15bought no
2mo ago7¢100bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.