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Will New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?·closes in 16mo

Will it be reported by New Hampshire Secretary of State that the New Hampshire secretary of state announces a specific date for the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary that precedes the currently scheduled date for the South Carolina presidential primary before Jan 22, 2028?

YES means Yes

24h volume
0
3,002 lifetime
Open interest
2,066
Spread
15¢
0.13 × 50 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
88%

A YES contract costs 94¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
12%

costs 21¢

YES bid / ask
79¢ / 94¢
NO bid / ask
6¢ / 21¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask9.3198¢
  • ask5697¢
  • ask5094¢
spread15¢mid 87¢
  • bid0.1379¢
  • bid578¢
  • bid10076¢
  • bid5074¢
  • bid21434¢
  • bid93¢
  • bid142¢
  • bid921¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the New Hampshire secretary of state announces a specific date for the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary that precedes the currently scheduled date for the South Carolina presidential primary after Issuance and before Jan 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only reporting from New Hampshire Secretary of State qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 27 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 22, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 29, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNHPRIMARY28-28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13d ago88¢31bought yes
18d ago83¢17bought no
18d ago84¢5bought no
20d ago88¢0.23bought yes
24d ago87¢4.31bought yes
24d ago87¢0.69bought yes
1mo ago80¢22bought no
1mo ago82¢5bought no
1mo ago81¢4.31bought no
1mo ago81¢4.31bought no
1mo ago80¢16bought no
1mo ago71¢200bought yes
1mo ago66¢200bought yes
1mo ago65¢52bought yes
1mo ago63¢50bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.