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Open AI vs Anthropic·closes in 162mo

Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?

YES means Anthropic

24h volume
3,524
201.5k lifetime
Open interest
51.6k
Spread
2¢
17 × 11 at the touch
24h range
77¢ – 94¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
88%−5

A YES contract costs 88¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
12%

costs 14¢

YES bid / ask
86¢ / 88¢
NO bid / ask
12¢ / 14¢
24h low 77¢24h high 94¢
Recent buying6% YES · 94% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask66797¢
  • ask65896¢
  • ask5,00095¢
  • ask24494¢
  • ask29193¢
  • ask12892¢
  • ask2.2891¢
  • ask1188¢
spread2¢mid 87¢
  • bid1786¢
  • bid5885¢
  • bid50084¢
  • bid20079¢
  • bid18978¢
  • bid1,18977¢
  • bid50076¢
  • bid50067¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6, 2025 · 11:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2040 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2040 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 6% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
20m ago88¢0.22bought yes
5h ago82¢10bought no
5h ago79¢12bought no
5h ago79¢11bought no
5h ago81¢1bought no
5h ago79¢18bought no
5h ago79¢9bought no
5h ago79¢1.7bought no
5h ago79¢1.36bought no
6h ago92¢0.3bought no
6h ago79¢7.48bought no
6h ago92¢0.13bought no
6h ago91¢0.69bought no
6h ago92¢10bought no
6h ago92¢0.59bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.