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Open AI vs Anthropic·closes in 160mo

Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?

YES means Anthropic

24h volume
72
224.2k lifetime
Open interest
57.9k
+19.1k over 90d
Spread
1¢
101 × 125 at the touch
24h range
63¢ – 99¢
Chance of YES
98%+4

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
2%

costs 3¢

YES bid / ask
97¢ / 98¢
NO bid / ask
2¢ / 3¢
24h low 63¢24h high 99¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢85¢90¢95¢100¢volAug 7Nov 4

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,60099¢
  • ask12598¢
spread1¢mid 98¢
  • bid10197¢
  • bid3395¢
  • bid5394¢
  • bid11093¢
  • bid70092¢
  • bid79490¢
  • bid1,18979¢
  • bid20066¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6, 2025 · 11:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2040 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2040 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.