OpenAI another Millennium Prize claim·closes in 3mo

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
111
32.5k lifetime
Open interest
12.9k
Spread
200 × 20 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
64%3

A YES contract costs 65¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
36%

costs 37¢

YES bid / ask
63¢ / 65¢
NO bid / ask
35¢ / 37¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6180¢
  • ask5779¢
  • ask26875¢
  • ask15274¢
  • ask372¢
  • ask30069¢
  • ask9468¢
  • ask2065¢
spreadmid 64¢
  • bid20063¢
  • bid7858¢
  • bid36356¢
  • bid643¢
  • bid20040¢
  • bid50039¢
  • bid15027¢
  • bid1,27626¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If OpenAI announces a complete solution developed by OpenAI or researchers collaborating directly with OpenAI on that solution to one of the five qualifying Millennium Prize Problems (Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer, Hodge, P versus NP, Riemann, or Yang-Mills), excluding the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem and the Poincare conjecture before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The qualifying announcement must expressly state that OpenAI developed or co-developed the solution, or expressly identify outside researchers as having collaborated with OpenAI on developing that solution. The qualifying problems are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem. The Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem and the Poincare conjecture do NOT count. Work by an independent ChatGPT user does NOT count, even if OpenAI publicizes it. Providing model access or research credits alone is not direct collaboration on the solution. Partial results, numerical evidence, or formalization of a previously known solution do NOT count as a complete solution. Clay acceptance, peer review, and a prize award are not required.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 8 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOPENAIANOTHERMILLENNIUM-28-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14m ago64¢10bought no
14m ago64¢19bought no
19m ago64¢15bought no
21m ago64¢15bought no
8h ago65¢1bought yes
8h ago65¢3bought yes
10h ago62¢10bought no
10h ago61¢0.14bought no
10h ago60¢37bought no
2d ago67¢200bought yes
2d ago65¢10bought yes
2d ago65¢1bought yes
2d ago67¢5bought no
2d ago32¢13bought no
2d ago68¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.