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Oscar for Best Actor·closes in 16mo

Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the Oscars?

YES means John Malkovich

24h volume
2,263
89.6k lifetime
Open interest
66.9k
+12.9k over 7d
Spread
1¢
15 × 705 at the touch
24h range
36¢ – 42¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
40%

A YES contract costs 41¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
60%

costs 60¢

YES bid / ask
40¢ / 41¢
NO bid / ask
59¢ / 60¢
24h low 36¢24h high 42¢
Recent buying76% YES · 24% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5559¢
  • ask4.3148¢
  • ask2047¢
  • ask15045¢
  • ask1844¢
  • ask40043¢
  • ask98142¢
  • ask70541¢
spread1¢mid 41¢
  • bid1540¢
  • bid10839¢
  • bid24438¢
  • bid50737¢
  • bid21336¢
  • bid25632¢
  • bid8031¢
  • bid35030¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If John Malkovich has won Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99 Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 19 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARACTO-27-JOH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 124¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 76% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
37m ago40¢5bought yes
39m ago40¢7bought no
49m ago40¢1.07bought no
56m ago40¢4bought no
57m ago40¢26bought yes
57m ago40¢2.07bought yes
57m ago41¢9bought yes
57m ago41¢0.42bought yes
57m ago41¢2.19bought yes
57m ago42¢7.26bought yes
1h ago40¢1bought no
1h ago40¢20bought yes
1h ago40¢99bought yes
1h ago40¢1bought yes
1h ago40¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.