galdor.xyz
Admin
Oscar for Best Actor·closes in 16mo

Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the Oscars?

YES means John Malkovich

24h volume
2,392
89.7k lifetime
Open interest
67.0k
+12.9k over 7d
Spread
1¢
14 × 715 at the touch
24h range
36¢ – 42¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
40%

A YES contract costs 40¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
60%

costs 61¢

YES bid / ask
39¢ / 40¢
NO bid / ask
60¢ / 61¢
24h low 36¢24h high 42¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2047¢
  • ask80046¢
  • ask15045¢
  • ask1844¢
  • ask40043¢
  • ask98142¢
  • ask4441¢
  • ask71540¢
spread1¢mid 40¢
  • bid1439¢
  • bid24538¢
  • bid57437¢
  • bid21336¢
  • bid25632¢
  • bid15331¢
  • bid35030¢
  • bid1,00229¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If John Malkovich has won Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99 Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 19 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARACTO-27-JOH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 124¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
16m ago40¢10bought yes
16m ago40¢1.7bought yes
30m ago40¢4.84bought no
30m ago40¢7.42bought no
30m ago39¢96bought no
30m ago40¢2.67bought no
30m ago39¢9bought no
37m ago40¢0.86bought no
37m ago40¢4bought no
2h ago40¢5bought yes
2h ago40¢7bought no
2h ago40¢1.07bought no
2h ago40¢4bought no
2h ago40¢26bought yes
2h ago40¢2.07bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.