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Oscar for Best Actress·closes in 16mo

Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the Oscars?

YES means Renate Reinsve

24h volume
0
12.4k lifetime
Open interest
7,789
+2,122 over 7d
Spread
2¢
2,543 × 1,866 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 98¢
Recent buying34% YES · 66% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask334¢
  • ask72920¢
  • ask1,00019¢
  • ask10016¢
  • ask18¢
  • ask5.527¢
  • ask1,7635¢
  • ask1,8664¢
spread2¢mid 3¢
  • bid2,5432¢
  • bid1,2451¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Renate Reinsve has won Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 19 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARACTR-27-REN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 110¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 34% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago3¢5bought no
1d ago3¢1,230bought no
3d ago4¢4bought no
6d ago5¢0.64bought no
6d ago5¢583bought no
6d ago5¢2.89bought no
6d ago6¢264bought yes
6d ago6¢32bought yes
6d ago6¢0.59bought yes
7d ago5¢1.8bought no
8d ago5¢5.55bought no
9d ago6¢2.41bought yes
9d ago7¢0.07bought no
9d ago6¢2bought no
9d ago5¢3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.