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Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay·closes in 16mo

Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

YES means The Black Ball

24h volume
795
4,924 lifetime
Open interest
4,073
+393 over 24h
Spread
2¢
0.09 × 200 at the touch
24h range
22¢ – 61¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
26%+3

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
74%

costs 75¢

YES bid / ask
25¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 75¢
24h low 22¢24h high 61¢
Recent buying89% YES · 11% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢volSep 20, 1:33 PMSep 21, 12:32 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3777¢
  • ask6.566¢
  • ask84265¢
  • ask5.5464¢
  • ask27462¢
  • ask5.5461¢
  • ask15038¢
  • ask20027¢
spread2¢mid 26¢
  • bid0.0925¢
  • bid20224¢
  • bid2.120¢
  • bid15019¢
  • bid0.1913¢
  • bid7412¢
  • bid80111¢
  • bid55310¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If The Black Ball has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 5 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARASPLAY-27-BLA
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 89% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago26¢37bought yes
10h ago24¢200bought yes
12h ago23¢199bought no
12h ago24¢0.09bought no
12h ago23¢1.69bought no
12h ago25¢38bought yes
14h ago25¢38bought yes
14h ago46¢23bought yes
14h ago45¢4.92bought yes
14h ago23¢200bought yes
14h ago61¢12bought yes
14h ago61¢1.76bought yes
14h ago23¢21bought yes
14h ago22¢1.03bought yes
14h ago23¢20bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.