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Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay·closes in 16mo

Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

YES means The Invite

24h volume
161
3,994 lifetime
Open interest
2,758
Spread
1¢
11 × 30 at the touch
24h range
31¢ – 33¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
33%+2

A YES contract costs 30¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
67%

costs 71¢

YES bid / ask
29¢ / 30¢
NO bid / ask
70¢ / 71¢
24h low 31¢24h high 33¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5462¢
  • ask560¢
  • ask3054¢
  • ask29453¢
  • ask15038¢
  • ask3637¢
  • ask20031¢
  • ask3030¢
spread1¢mid 30¢
  • bid1129¢
  • bid20028¢
  • bid9720¢
  • bid5019¢
  • bid15618¢
  • bid15017¢
  • bid8816¢
  • bid7.3115¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If The Invite has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 5 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARASPLAY-27-INV
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 173¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14h ago33¢0.05bought yes
14h ago32¢1.41bought yes
16h ago31¢145bought yes
16h ago31¢15bought yes
1d ago33¢15bought no
1d ago33¢15bought no
1d ago32¢23bought no
1d ago31¢200bought no
1d ago33¢5bought no
2d ago34¢19bought yes
2d ago35¢20bought yes
3d ago31¢5.76bought yes
3d ago30¢7.64bought yes
3d ago30¢3.59bought yes
3d ago31¢75bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.