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Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay·closes in 16mo

Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?

YES means Project Hail Mary

24h volume
0
1,736 lifetime
Open interest
1,735
Spread
1¢
1 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 95¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask33046¢
  • ask5345¢
  • ask4443¢
  • ask341¢
  • ask2328¢
  • ask124¢
  • ask15017¢
  • ask2006¢
spread1¢mid 6¢
  • bid15¢
  • bid4004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Project Hail Mary has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 5 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARASPLAY-27-PRO
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 173¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago7¢13bought yes
2d ago6¢31bought yes
9d ago7¢134bought yes
16d ago8¢12bought yes
16d ago7¢40bought yes
16d ago7¢13bought yes
16d ago7¢1,000bought yes
17d ago7¢27bought yes
17d ago7¢67bought yes
18d ago7¢107bought yes
23d ago7¢27bought yes
1mo ago6¢78bought yes
1mo ago8¢1bought yes
1mo ago6¢156bought yes
1mo ago1¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.