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Oscar for Best Director·closes in 16mo

Will Denis Villeneuve win Best Director at the Oscars?

YES means Denis Villeneuve

24h volume
1,712
18.3k lifetime
Open interest
13.4k
+4,106 over 30d
Spread
1¢
75 × 32 at the touch
24h range
11¢ – 15¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%−2

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 87¢
24h low 11¢24h high 15¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4.4121¢
  • ask2520¢
  • ask219¢
  • ask49318¢
  • ask11417¢
  • ask12116¢
  • ask10015¢
  • ask3214¢
spread1¢mid 14¢
  • bid7513¢
  • bid15212¢
  • bid71811¢
  • bid1,09510¢
  • bid419¢
  • bid8048¢
  • bid17¢
  • bid2.846¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Denis Villeneuve has won Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99thth Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 9 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARDIR-27-DEN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 114¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11h ago13¢100bought no
11h ago12¢4.55bought no
11h ago12¢29bought no
11h ago13¢5.99bought no
11h ago12¢7.09bought no
11h ago12¢100bought no
11h ago12¢1.4bought no
11h ago13¢1.89bought no
11h ago12¢1.04bought no
11h ago11¢436bought no
11h ago12¢2bought no
11h ago11¢2bought no
13h ago15¢5bought yes
13h ago15¢30bought yes
13h ago15¢216bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.